How to set up deal probability scoring in HelloGrowthCRM
Configure stage-based and AI-powered probabilities for accurate weighted forecasting. HelloGrowthCRM blends both for best-in-class accuracy.
What this guide helps you do
Follow this article when you want a focused, step-by-step path to complete the task without digging through menus.
Need a broader overview first?
Go back to the Sales Pipeline section to browse more guides, compare related tasks, and choose a better starting point.
View all Sales Pipeline guidesDeal probability is what powers your weighted pipeline forecast. HelloGrowthCRM combines stage-based and AI probabilities for the most accurate forecast.
How to use this guide
Read the intro to confirm this is the right workflow, complete the steps in order, then review the common issues and related articles if your setup behaves differently from the standard path.
What you'll need
- •Owner or Admin role
- •200+ closed deals to enable AI probability
- •Historical data on deal cycle and conversion per stage
- •15-20 minutes for initial calibration
- 1
Open Pipeline → Settings → Probability
From kanban, gear icon → Probability scoring.
- 2
Choose mode
Stage-based only, AI-only, or Blended (recommended 70/30 stage/AI).
- 3
Set baseline stage probabilities
Pull historical data with View historical conversion. Match probabilities to actual rates.
- 4
Train the AI model
Click Train AI. Requires 200+ closed deals. Training 2-5 min.
- 5
Set blend weight
Slider 0-100%. 70/30 good start.
- 6
Configure decay
If deal hasn't moved 30 days, multiply probability by 0.7. Stops stale deals inflating forecast.
- 7
Test on past closed deals
Click Backtest — re-score 200 random closed deals. Aim within 10% of actual.
- 8
Save and view in pipeline
Each deal card shows blended probability with AI badge if AI moved >10% from stage default.
Frequently asked questions
Difference between stage probability and AI probability?▾
Stage = team hypothesis. AI = empirical, deal-specific. Blend for best results.
Can different pipelines have different probabilities?▾
Yes — each has its own probability config.
Does AI use my workspace data only?▾
Workspace-only. Each workspace gets isolated model.
How often does AI re-train?▾
Every 30 days automatically. Trigger manually any time.
Can a rep override probability?▾
Yes — Probability widget → Manual override. Persists until cleared.
How does this affect commission?▾
Probability doesn't affect commission directly — only weighted forecast.
Related articles
See it in product
Try it yourself
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Still need help?
If this article does not match your account setup, rollout stage, or edge case, review more guides in Sales Pipeline or contact our team for direct help.
Rushabh leads product strategy at HelloGrowthCRM with a focus on CRM workflows, revenue operations, and practical product design for growing businesses.
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