Assign win probabilities to each pipeline stage and calculate weighted expected revenue for a more accurate sales forecast.
| Stage name | Deal count | Avg deal ($) | Win probability (%) | Raw pipeline | Weighted | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $160.0k | $16.0k | |||||
| $96.0k | $24.0k | |||||
| $64.0k | $25.6k | |||||
| $40.0k | $24.0k | |||||
| $24.0k | $19.2k |
Automate this in your CRM. HelloGrowthCRM tracks deal stage probabilities and updates your weighted pipeline automatically. See pipeline management and sales forecasting.
What it does
Multiplies each stage's deal value by its win probability to produce a weighted pipeline figure that reflects realistic close likelihood.
Why it matters
Raw pipeline totals overstate revenue potential. Weighted pipeline gives sales managers a more honest forecast to share with leadership.
Definition
A weighted pipeline multiplies each open deal's value by the estimated probability of closing at its current stage, then sums those values.
Assumptions
How to interpret your results
A weighted pipeline below your monthly revenue target is a signal to add more deals at higher-probability stages or increase deal values.
How to improve
Use historical data
Replace default probabilities with your actual stage conversion rates for a more accurate forecast.
Review stage distribution
If most deals sit in early stages, pipeline coverage may look healthy but close risk is high.
HelloGrowthCRM updates deal stage probabilities automatically and shows your weighted pipeline in real time — no spreadsheet needed.